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The price of this one hinges on the unknown Jonny Sexton factor.

Will the new 10 improve Ireland or will he – at 24 years of age and with one cap under his belt – flounder under the pressure of lining out against the World Champions?

All the indications – for anyone who has been watching a reasonable amount of Irish provincial rugby of late at least – are that Sexton will more than adequately fill in for O’Gara.

Add in the rumoured loss of Bakkies Botha from the Boks starting line-up and the even money or better available about Ireland looks even tastier.

The breakdown battle and the SA scrum – albeit possibly weakened by Botha’s absence – are the sole caveats for Ireland but the men in green still look to have the weapons to score good tries and restrict South Africa to penalties and possibly an opportunistic five pointer.

It’s tight, but Ireland have several key edges – not least the pace and passing of their back division - and can be backed with confidence.

Almost as fascinating is the clash of France and New Zealand later on Saturday evening.

France won a belting game against South Africa a couple of weeks ago, but just how sound is that form? Not very, in my view, as the Boks folded relatively tamely up front in the end and lacked the weapons to probe the French weak areas. The loss of Imanol Harinorduquy also damages the French outlook.

It is unlikely Les Bleus’ pack will steamroller the All Blacks and out-half Francois Trinh-Duc does not look up to steering his men to an attritional win either.

New Zealand are value at anywhere from 8/11 or better.

Recommended: 3 points Ireland to beat South Africa (11/10); 2 points New Zealand to beat France (8/11)

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Getting a handle on the result of Ireland v Australia is a very tough call but there is some value to be had in the tryscorer/anytime lists.

Gut instinct says that Ireland are capable of a medium margin victory – between five and 10 points – but Australia have played much more rugby together in recent months and that could skew things their way.

It’s hard to back a result either way with much confidence.

Looking at those try-scorer/anytime lists, Brian O’Driscoll on the Irish side and Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Giteau and Will Genia for the Aussies are the names worthy of closer examination.

O’Driscoll’s price looks slightly on the tight side but the match is set up for him with a good distributor in Paddy Wallace at 12 and an inexperienced Australian centre pairing directly opposite. Add in the fact that he can score from a huge variety of situations and despite the fact that the Aussies will no doubt look to focus on shutting him down, he is value. Keeping him quiet is easier said than done and the 7/2 is the best price by far of any of those at the head of the market.

Leading the next rank in price terms, Ashley-Cooper is also an eye-catcher at 5/1 as his sheer running power makes him a serious try-scoring threat in any game. He is simply a very difficult man to bring down and generally gets a few big yardage gains in every game. One of those could well take him over the Irish line. Should Australia start getting on top, the prices about the half-back pair of Will Genia and Matt Giteau will also look very generous as they play with their heads up – Giteau is small and nimble enough to lie nice and flat – and always have one eye on a gap.

On the other hand, Ireland boast a superb defensive system that  looked very solid through the Grand Slam. They may not find suffocating Australia quite as easy as the Northern Hemisphere sides but neither will the Wallabies find it as easy to penetrate as they did last week against England.

On balance, a small wager on Ireland’s captain to take responsibility is the best value.

Recommended: Two points on Brian O’Driscoll to score a try at any time at 7/2.

The return of the maul will suit………well, what are the ingredients of good mauling?

Team spirit, big men, good hands and, in many cases, a little chap who knows how to keep his cool. Think Neil Back rumbling along behind the big England pack of the early 2000s.

The big man is for throwing the ball to and holding on to. Ideally, he won’t mind being pinched, having his toes stepped on, being up-ended every now and again or any of the other nasty stuff that goes with putting yourself at the fore of a dangerous attacking weapon. He will be also be a leader; a player who has the physique to dambust and the personality that makes other players want to follow him through the gap

Put a structure on that player, feed the ball to the back and from there and push – but not too quickly – and you have either yardage, a penalty or both. Close to the line, it can be a relatively simple way of scoring tries.

Looking at Munster and Leinster’s attacking mauls, both sides tick a lot of the right boxes. Leinster in particular have made signings that should make them a better mauling side.

Munster have traditionally been one and have arguably suffered from the ELVs more than most. Paul O’Connell and John Hayes are an excellent combination in the air and they also have a good understanding on the ground and can lead a maul about as well as anyone. O’Connell has exactly the forceful leader qualities that make for good mauling. They also have the power to drive the maul on and the heart and mental strength to use it to apply real pressure to the opposition. Think David Wallace and Alan Quinlan. The only caveat is that Jerry Flannery – often the controlling player – has been known to makes bad decisions and plays with the ball in his hands there though his excellent throwing is a big asset to the lineout attack as a whole.

Leinster have tended to struggle with both the delivery and delivering a good base on the ground. This year may prove a different story. The negative for them is that the backrow mix – the best trio is arguably Sean O’Brien, Shane Jennings and Jamie Heaslip – looks like it will prosper in open field situations but struggle to make an impact in the tight as they are small and relatively light.

However, Nathan Hines, a possible blindside but more likely to be seen at second row, may prove a trump card. Hines’ height and weight – he is just over 18 stone and 6 and a half feet, not to mention his excellent handling, make him a promising prospect as the cornerstone.

Alongside him, Mike Ross is a similarly useful looking prospect. Leinster’s props have typically been on the short and stocky side compared to the likes of Hayes. Like Hines, Mike Ross – 19 stone and 6’2 – is significantly beefier. The delivery may also improve with new signing Richardt Strauss rumoured to be a solid thrower in.

Strauss has also scored 16 tries for the Free State Cheetahs and Cheetahs (Currie Cup and Super 14); an impressive record for a 23-year-old. He could be the right man to steer things from the back.

All told, the omens suggest that Leinster may use the maul in much the same way Wasps did during their dominant spell prior to the ELVs – back then, Wasps used it brilliantly as a device for tiring defenders both mentally and physically and creating space for their hard running creative players up the middle; the signing of Eoin Reddan, who really knows how to direct and work the ball in the tight, only adds to that suspicion.

On the betting front, it may pay to take a look at Strauss, O’Brien and possibly Jennings and Bernard Jackman for Leinster and Wallace and Flannery – although note that he is rumoured to be struggling with injury at this stage – for Munster in the tryscorer (any time) lists, particularly against weaker opposition.

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‘A Lion in South Africa is something special’ – so said Ian McGeechan on the 1997 Tour.

Not according to the bookies he isn’t……

They seem to have priced up this Lions series based on the horrendous drubbing in the New Zealand, and also the eventual damp squib in Australia four years earlier.

In my opinion, these Lions will have much more in common with the 1997 group and, in fact, they are well enough placed to exceed their achievement by going 3-0 in the Test series.

Why? Well, professional rugby is stronger in Europe now than it was then and these Springboks are also arguably relatively not as good as the ’97 group. The mystique is certainly less. There is also the issue of them having to re-adapt to proper rugby instead of the absurd ruck ELVs used in this year’s Super 14s.

But the key to this bet is that price about the Lions going 3-0 is currently a ludicrous, enormous 16/1. The equivalent Springbok price is 5/4.

Crazy. Ludicrous. Mad.

For what it’s worth, the price is in the main down to Clive Woodward’s New Zealand Lions. The theory now goes that is too hard to bring a team together quickly in the professional era – that the Lions concept itself makes it hard to win.

This is also nonsense. As Wales, who won a Grand Slam under Warren Gatland in their first season with him in 2008 and Ireland, who did the same under Declan Kidney in 2009, have shown in recent years, remarkably quick improvements are absolutely possible under the right coach.

A Lions side under McGeechan? The 2-1 series in 1997 is the most relevant piece of recent form. I’m not saying they will do it but 3-0 is well within their scope. This price is double what it should be and a win in the first test would leave you holding a very strong betting slip.

This price should be snapped up.

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The Lions play their first game against a Royal XV and the current handicap (30 points) is also fairly tempting.

Sure, the Lions have only a couple of weeks together. But they are hardened internationals playing a bunch of has beens and never quite weres.

I suspect that a bigger total is eminently likely and advise taking on the handicap.

Recommended: 4 points on the Lions to win the Test series 3-0. 2 points on the Lions to beat the Royal XV (-30). 

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……….not in the betting lists anyway. Or, at least, not yet.

They are 4/1 fourth-favourties for the 2009 Championship, 8/1 for the Grand Slam and 33/1 for the World Cup.

Basically, they are big prices for two reasons – first, Ireland aren’t getting respect from the market for this year’s Slam and second, the fixture list is, in terms of the received wisdom at least, against them in that they will have to beat both France and England away from home to win a second Slam in a row.

Essentially, the market reckons Ireland’s RBS 6 Nations Grand Slam is a bit of a performance ceiling. I actually take the other view and actually expect them to improve as they get used to things, and as one or two new players come on stream. Out-half and the tight five – especially John Hayes at tighthead prop – remain a slight concern but other teams also have plenty of issues to contend with.

Ireland were actually unlucky at key moments this year. Arguably, they should not have given France as much of a chance as they ended up doing on the first day. They should also not have let England get within a point, suffered a slow start (and dreadful refereeing) against Scotland, and had very poor discipline against Wales – only against Italy did they really react strongly to whatever adversity came their way.

But the key question is: ‘which side is the most likely to improve?’

Take England and France first.

England have a dreadful tendency towards mediocrity and will, I believe, continue to be an in and out sort of team under Martin Johnson. They have big performances in them, but frankly they are too driven by external factors – the press – and not enough by an inbuilt desire to succeed. France have had the jersey diminished and the aura stripped away by two years of meddling by Marc Lievremont. They are mentally much weaker now than they were around the time of RWC 2007. The player quality is still there but it will be years before we appreciate exactly how much damage the current coach has done.

The market is factoring in a recovery from both, but with Johnson and Lievremont in charge that must be a massive doubt.

Wales are slightly different in that they are capable of doing the business and having done the Slam in 2008, we know they can handle this type of fixture list. Gatland as a coach is also streets ahead of the two mentioned above. Crucially though, Wales play Ireland away from home. Also against them is that they have been figured out a touch and with other teams now capable of playing up to their intensity benchmark, I think they will actually find it quite difficult to get extra performance from this group. Does Gatland have anything to offer except ‘more of the same, (only moreso….)’?

France and Ireland now both know they can dominate the Welsh up front, having done so this year, and England may also have a chance of doing that at Twickenham next year having rattled them at the Millennium this year.

We may have seen the best Wales have to give.

The other key question in relation to the prices is whether you think Ireland will continue to ‘overperform’ under Declan Kidney, or whether they will quietly bugger off, let England, France and Wales at it, and dine out on the Slam for the next 20 years.

For me, that is highly unlikely. Ireland will continue to improve and with the maul set to make a return should actually find the general playing conditions suit them better.

RECOMMENDED: 1 pt each on Ireland to do the 2010 RBS Six Nations Grand Slam (8/1) and win the 2011 World Cup (33/1).

Ireland will beat Wales…..

At least I strongly believe that they will.

Analyse thought process for wishful thinking and excessive patriotism….that’s a negative.

In fact, I’ve been trying to think of reasons Ireland won’t win for all sorts of reasons this week and I’m basically stuck on an stunning performance from Wales doing us.

I don’t see that happening for two reasons: first, Ireland have the initiative in this match, and Warren Gatland knows it. They fear us, and that is why he has opted to try to stir things up in the media this week.

The capacity for us to take the steam out of the game if that is needed is there.

Second, and related to that, is that our forwards are superior to the Welsh. That is why Ireland have been able to win playing ‘boring’ rugby so far.

If Leinster and Munster have shown us anything these past few years it’s that the teams who need to chuck the ball about to win are the ones to be wary of for betting purposes.

Flawed diamonds who get it done it through the pack? Every time…..

Ireland should be favourites in the book for this game but they’re not – and at 5/4 they are a proper backing price.

Recommended: 3 points, Ireland to beat Wales at 5/4.

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The -3 handicap available from Ladbrokes last week (see below) was a must bet and has now been pushed to a more realistic -7.

That doesn’t mean all the value has gone out of the handicap market however.

That is particularly the case at the ‘blowout’ end of things.

A word of warning – sometimes teams that deserve to get smashed don’t, and sometimes teams that don’t deserve to get smashed do. Scotland may just be the type of team that deserve it.

Wales should have done it, but played too narrow and made too many changes to push home their advantage, while France failed to put the physicality into their game required to really dominate but won anyway.

Ireland ought not make the same mistakes. They will be exceptionally physically committed – with those four changes adding extra energy and vigour – and they will want to score as many points as possible from minute one to 80. There will be no let-up and if they get on top they will continue to work hard, simply due to the fact that the Six Nations Championship may end up  going to points difference.

As Irish teams have found in the past, that type of motivation is also likely to be far more powerful and positive than the Scots, who are playing for respectability.

Final note – the ref is Jonanthan Kaplan, which could be a slight concern if he takes against Ireland for some reason. However, Ireland play refs very well and should be the more dominant and disciplined team at the breakdown. They could well get the majority of calls there, much as Wales did against England.

On that basis, the Ireland -20 point handicap is a decent price at 9/2.

In the other games, France should beat England but you can’t write off one of those ‘Land Of Hope And Glory’ performances. That said, English captain Steve Borthwick has been a hugely unimpressive figure throughout and there must a question mark over whether he can really unite this team.

Wales should beat Italy but I could see it being a little more nervy than they are bargaining for. Three bad performances and the 10 Welsh changes will motivate the Italians, though their tackling and discipline has been much weaker this year than in the past. Possibly a scratchy first half followed by Wales strecthing away a bit to win by 25-7 or so……

Recommended: 2 points, Ireland (-20) to beat Scotland at 9/2.

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So – no joy from Italy and in the end, the Scots gave them a decent beating (26-6). Two bad teams, but Italy never really gave themselves a chance and were refereed harshly as well.

In a sense, the Scots showing a little form is probably good news for Ireland and the spread for the next round makes for interesting reading.

If Ireland are serious about winning the tournament, I suspect they may have it in the back of their mind to put on the points if given even a sniff of a chance to do so – though I’m sure that publicly they will toe the usual line about ensuring the win first.

They showed aggression against England by opting to kick for the corner and I believe they are to an extent at least prepared to entertain thinking ‘outside the box’.

Wales, with a whirlwind display in round one, showed what can be done against the Scots with a bit of intensity and Ireland’s ability to take the ball through the phases could see them score relatively freely.

Add in the fact that the current handicap (Ireland -3) is simply a must bet and this is a one that just has to be done in a big way.

By the by, I strongly suspect this price won’t last all that long but it would remain value at anything up to 7 or so, albeit possibly with a lower stake.

Recommended: 3 pts Ireland (-3) to beat Scotland at 10/11.

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I’m happy enough with where I am on the tournament as a whole – I would love to be holding an interest in Ireland but having plumped for a Wales Grand Slam at 5/1 as my pre-tournament tip at the start of the tournament, I’m banking on both Ireland and Wales coming through unbeaten to the last weekend, at which point I’ll be very tempted to just lay off and enjoy what should be one of the games of the season.

Anway, why get involved with a tight Grand Slam and outright market when there is obvious value staring you in the face in this weekend’s matches?

Where’s that? Why in the wooden spoon decider between Scotland v Italy of course. (I fancy France to beat Wales, but not enough and I reckon Ireland will beat England too – not at the prices).

Italy at 3/1 to beat Scotland is probably the best value bets we will see this tournament. In my book, it is closer to a 50/50 with Italy a shade ahead.

So (always remember that bookies are no mugs) – you have to ask: “why the price?”

Well, Scotland have shown flashes of being a decent side in their two games so far. In fact, they may well have a purple patch against Italy.

A try or two may even result but it’s what happens around that period that is a concern for them because all they have shown so far is that they are a poor side with the odd 10 minute spell in them.

But. Rugby matches – and this is especially true of bad rugby matches – are won up front and the Italian pack is quite capable of making mince meat of their Scottish counterparts.

The Scottish backrow is particularly weak and Sergio Parisse and Mauro Bergamasco should be able to limit Scotland’s time on the ball and space to play from the ruck out.

True, Italy have problems of their own, especially at half-back and with a few injuries and form issues, the backline as a whole is under pressure but to me, the problems are surmountable – or at least, they are surmountable over 80 minutes against Scotland. Certainly, more surmountable than Scotland’s sheer lack of muscle.

Italy are considered weak by the market because they played like a drain against England – it’s OK to just write that one off – and eventually got overrun by an excellent Ireland side after a decent 50 minutes or so. Scotland are way short of Ireland’s class on what we have seen so far. They have neither the power nor the quality and speed in the backline to do what Ireland did.  It is also importnat to note that if the Scots try to press up in defence as Ireland did when they began to turn the game around, they will likely be smashed backwards.

Italy to outmuscle Scotland and win a tough, tight one.

Recommended: 3 points on Italy to beat Scotland at 3/1.

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Are England really that bad?

For me, with France v Scotland and Italy v Ireland priced up pretty well, that’s the crucial question heading in to this weekend.

Ireland will are a near certainty but are priced accordingly and the 12 point handicap is just about on the money. I would have a slight fancy for Ireland to beat it but not enough to bet it. France v Scotland is even harder to read. A 17 point handicap is maybe a touch generous to the French as Scotland should improve somewhat and have a few decent backs. Again, it’s priced up pretty well and there are big results at either end – a Scottish shock win or a classic thumping – that also put me off.

But what about Wales v England?

Well, England are a big price and drifting having opened at 3/1 and gone out to 10/3. Basically, they are about as unfashionable as bankers’ bonuses.

Looking at the vibe, there’s no Danny Cipriani to latch on to and even the likes of Ben Foden and Shane Geraghty have been dropped from the squad: an old warhorse vibe which should mean that the hype should be relatively low key – in terms of the price, that’s all good. There is not going be much ‘patriotic pound’ following them across the Severn.

But I also reckon that the fundamentals are there for England. In terms of physique and individual mental toughness I don’t see them being out-muscled or bullied in the way the Scots allowed themselves to be for long periods last week.

The lack of intensity against Italy is a worry but at the risk of repeating myself, I reckon the first side to find it in themselves to knock Wales around a bit in the tackle and ruck could find themselves with a surprisingly easy task in front of them. Last week ended up being a bit of a Mickey Mouse game for England: this is definitely not. I also reckon England are at or near rock-bottom and that this will help them perform.  Playing a fancied Wales side that you are playing as underdogs looks an ideal task for an English side that still has a natural arrogance about it.

Also, Wales are under pressure to win. England are under pressure to show some passion. That’s a slight but important difference and may play a role in deciding how this pans out.

Of course it’s always difficult to time the bet properly even when you figure that the hotpot (Wales in this case) is a potential bust and this is undeniably a little speculative. Even so, I’m going to say that on this occasion I think England – possibly even more than France in Week Three – may have what it takes.

(I have already recommended backing Wales at 5/1 for the Grand Slam but have gone off them a little since seeing the Scotland game and happy to lay off that bet to a degree. Basically, there’s a little extra scope there – though I still think a small investment on England this weekend is a sound bet in its own right).

RECOMMENDED: 1 point on England to beat Wales at 10/3.