Can England topple Wales?
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Are England really that bad?
For me, with France v Scotland and Italy v Ireland priced up pretty well, that’s the crucial question heading in to this weekend.
Ireland will are a near certainty but are priced accordingly and the 12 point handicap is just about on the money. I would have a slight fancy for Ireland to beat it but not enough to bet it. France v Scotland is even harder to read. A 17 point handicap is maybe a touch generous to the French as Scotland should improve somewhat and have a few decent backs. Again, it’s priced up pretty well and there are big results at either end – a Scottish shock win or a classic thumping – that also put me off.
But what about Wales v England?
Well, England are a big price and drifting having opened at 3/1 and gone out to 10/3. Basically, they are about as unfashionable as bankers’ bonuses.
Looking at the vibe, there’s no Danny Cipriani to latch on to and even the likes of Ben Foden and Shane Geraghty have been dropped from the squad: an old warhorse vibe which should mean that the hype should be relatively low key – in terms of the price, that’s all good. There is not going be much ‘patriotic pound’ following them across the Severn.
But I also reckon that the fundamentals are there for England. In terms of physique and individual mental toughness I don’t see them being out-muscled or bullied in the way the Scots allowed themselves to be for long periods last week.
The lack of intensity against Italy is a worry but at the risk of repeating myself, I reckon the first side to find it in themselves to knock Wales around a bit in the tackle and ruck could find themselves with a surprisingly easy task in front of them. Last week ended up being a bit of a Mickey Mouse game for England: this is definitely not. I also reckon England are at or near rock-bottom and that this will help them perform. Playing a fancied Wales side that you are playing as underdogs looks an ideal task for an English side that still has a natural arrogance about it.
Also, Wales are under pressure to win. England are under pressure to show some passion. That’s a slight but important difference and may play a role in deciding how this pans out.
Of course it’s always difficult to time the bet properly even when you figure that the hotpot (Wales in this case) is a potential bust and this is undeniably a little speculative. Even so, I’m going to say that on this occasion I think England – possibly even more than France in Week Three – may have what it takes.
(I have already recommended backing Wales at 5/1 for the Grand Slam but have gone off them a little since seeing the Scotland game and happy to lay off that bet to a degree. Basically, there’s a little extra scope there – though I still think a small investment on England this weekend is a sound bet in its own right).
RECOMMENDED: 1 point on England to beat Wales at 10/3.
Tags: england, six nations, wales