The Bet Of The Tournament…..
-
I’m happy enough with where I am on the tournament as a whole – I would love to be holding an interest in Ireland but having plumped for a Wales Grand Slam at 5/1 as my pre-tournament tip at the start of the tournament, I’m banking on both Ireland and Wales coming through unbeaten to the last weekend, at which point I’ll be very tempted to just lay off and enjoy what should be one of the games of the season.
Anway, why get involved with a tight Grand Slam and outright market when there is obvious value staring you in the face in this weekend’s matches?
Where’s that? Why in the wooden spoon decider between Scotland v Italy of course. (I fancy France to beat Wales, but not enough and I reckon Ireland will beat England too – not at the prices).
Italy at 3/1 to beat Scotland is probably the best value bets we will see this tournament. In my book, it is closer to a 50/50 with Italy a shade ahead.
So (always remember that bookies are no mugs) – you have to ask: “why the price?”
Well, Scotland have shown flashes of being a decent side in their two games so far. In fact, they may well have a purple patch against Italy.
A try or two may even result but it’s what happens around that period that is a concern for them because all they have shown so far is that they are a poor side with the odd 10 minute spell in them.
But. Rugby matches – and this is especially true of bad rugby matches – are won up front and the Italian pack is quite capable of making mince meat of their Scottish counterparts.
The Scottish backrow is particularly weak and Sergio Parisse and Mauro Bergamasco should be able to limit Scotland’s time on the ball and space to play from the ruck out.
True, Italy have problems of their own, especially at half-back and with a few injuries and form issues, the backline as a whole is under pressure but to me, the problems are surmountable – or at least, they are surmountable over 80 minutes against Scotland. Certainly, more surmountable than Scotland’s sheer lack of muscle.
Italy are considered weak by the market because they played like a drain against England – it’s OK to just write that one off – and eventually got overrun by an excellent Ireland side after a decent 50 minutes or so. Scotland are way short of Ireland’s class on what we have seen so far. They have neither the power nor the quality and speed in the backline to do what Ireland did. It is also importnat to note that if the Scots try to press up in defence as Ireland did when they began to turn the game around, they will likely be smashed backwards.
Italy to outmuscle Scotland and win a tough, tight one.
Recommended: 3 points on Italy to beat Scotland at 3/1.