Lions by 3-0? Maybe not, but…..
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‘A Lion in South Africa is something special’ – so said Ian McGeechan on the 1997 Tour.
Not according to the bookies he isn’t……
They seem to have priced up this Lions series based on the horrendous drubbing in the New Zealand, and also the eventual damp squib in Australia four years earlier.
In my opinion, these Lions will have much more in common with the 1997 group and, in fact, they are well enough placed to exceed their achievement by going 3-0 in the Test series.
Why? Well, professional rugby is stronger in Europe now than it was then and these Springboks are also arguably relatively not as good as the ’97 group. The mystique is certainly less. There is also the issue of them having to re-adapt to proper rugby instead of the absurd ruck ELVs used in this year’s Super 14s.
But the key to this bet is that price about the Lions going 3-0 is currently a ludicrous, enormous 16/1. The equivalent Springbok price is 5/4.
Crazy. Ludicrous. Mad.
For what it’s worth, the price is in the main down to Clive Woodward’s New Zealand Lions. The theory now goes that is too hard to bring a team together quickly in the professional era – that the Lions concept itself makes it hard to win.
This is also nonsense. As Wales, who won a Grand Slam under Warren Gatland in their first season with him in 2008 and Ireland, who did the same under Declan Kidney in 2009, have shown in recent years, remarkably quick improvements are absolutely possible under the right coach.
A Lions side under McGeechan? The 2-1 series in 1997 is the most relevant piece of recent form. I’m not saying they will do it but 3-0 is well within their scope. This price is double what it should be and a win in the first test would leave you holding a very strong betting slip.
This price should be snapped up.
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The Lions play their first game against a Royal XV and the current handicap (30 points) is also fairly tempting.
Sure, the Lions have only a couple of weeks together. But they are hardened internationals playing a bunch of has beens and never quite weres.
I suspect that a bigger total is eminently likely and advise taking on the handicap.
Recommended: 4 points on the Lions to win the Test series 3-0. 2 points on the Lions to beat the Royal XV (-30).