In betting terms, Scotland v Wales looks to me the most appealing match of the weekend simply because I think the book gives Scotland far too much of a chance.

Yes, they have improved a bit but I think Wales will not alone win but also actually out-class them. There is huge competition and energy in Warren Gatland’s squad and I anticipate that they will come out all guns blazing.

Scotland, with a couple of key injuries in the tight five- ideally an area they would target Wales, will try to match it and are capable of creating intensity but I just don’t see them living with what Wales will hit them with.

Going through the list, the half time/full time and the straight handicap – Wales minus five points -are the two that look most enticing to me.

Of the other games, the price on France to beat Ireland is actually a pretty decent looking one, but, well, it would be unpatriotic and…..to be honest I also have too much of a fancy for Ireland to win to advise taking them on.

England v Italy is also tough to call. Italy normally beat a spread or two but bookies are wiser to that and England’s 1/10 to win must be the longest price they’ve ever been in this fixture. One to watch.

Recommended: 2 pts on Wales to be leading at half time and full time (6/5) and 2 pts on Wales to beat the -5  handicap at 10/11.

As everyone knows, the fixture list – specifically the home and away arrangements but also the order in which game are due to be played – is critical to every Six Nations.

The temptation is to focus on Ireland and this is in theory one of ‘their’ years. Ireland have France and England at home and a new coach that is making the right sort of noises. Add to that the fact that both France and England are possibly not being optimised by their coaches and Ireland’s chances start to look even better.

However, Ireland aren’t the only team favoured by the odd numbered years – they can in the right circumstances be ‘Welsh’ years too.

Obviously, there are two examples that count against that; 2003, when they got the wooden spoon, and 2007, when they finished fifth. However, the 2005 team was not as good as this year’s outfit but ended up with a Grand Slam thanks to a little bit of attitude (and luck). They also had a decent coach in Mike Ruddock.

So, 2003 and 2007 can both be put down to mismanagement but 2005 just might shows what’s possible and under Warren Gatland, that is the type of Wales I expect to see.

The pivotal match for Wales is France away in week three but with Marc Lievremont in charge, there is simply not the same aura to them. Selection is poor and the vibe is off. England are slightly better looked after but have form issues with key players and but still don’t inspire confidence.

France may look a different proposition after the Ireland match but for now, they look a team to take on.

That leaves Wales and Ireland.

A crucial factor between those two is that Wales will have home advantage when the sides meet in the final week. Add in that Warren Gatland has had substantially longer with his team than Declan Kidney and Wales have to be favourites in that game.

I expect Ireland to achieve big things under Kidney, but they may have to cope with a disappointment or two first.

Obviously, there are pitfalls to predicting and backing the same result as last year in a ‘Wales are Champions therefore they will be again’ but the fact remains that Wales are a better side now then they were last year and have a slightly easier task.

So, for me, the outstanding bet of this Six Nations outrights set is Wales to win the Grand Slam at 5/1.

Recommendation: 2 points on Wales to win a Grand Slam at 5/1.

The main problem is, of course, Munster (15/8). Basically – clever bookies – it’s hard to fancy taking them on with most of the other teams involved, but they’re really too short to back as well.

For me, the sole chink of light is Harlequins (12/1). Basically, they are a team that can win big games and play great rugby in the right conditions. Even better, and unlike Leinster who have sometimes done the same, they have actually done so this season. The principle strength, and the reason they may be Cup winning contenders, is that Quins have a first class half-back pairing in Nick Evans and Danny Care.

With the last five quarter-final spots up for grabs and some teams set to have their participation in the Heineken Cup ended, it is worth asking ‘what is the impact of the stakes getting higher’?

Some teams clam up and become error prone, while others seem to play better the greater the pressure they come under. Playing style is doubtless a factor, but you can’t underestimate the rugby culture a club is founded on when it comes to forecasting how they will do under the gun.

Over the years, certain names – Munster, Toulouse, Leicester and Wasps – have consistently and with different playing personnel done the business while others loaded with star names have failed.

As such, with serious prizes up for grabs on the last weekend of Heineken Cup pool action, it may pay to stick with two teams available at good prices that have true pedigree in the competition.

Two of the quartet named above – Leicester and Toulouse – face the Ospreys and Bath respectively and both are just about second favourites (6/4 and 11/10).

Oddly enough, both Leicester and Toulouse have a tendency to field teams with two or three unfamiliar players – and both can sometimes look vulnerable on paper. Both are also past masters at getting the most out of players who have struggled elsewhere and bringing through young talent. That is evidence of solid coaching and a strong rugby culture more than anything else. Both have also been known to bench established stars and bring through young talent more quickly than certain other clubs, a sure sign that form counts over reputation. They also – and this is pertinent to Toulouse this week in particular given their result last week – have that priceless ability to bounce back better than ever after a setback.

RECOMMENDED: 1 point on Leicester to beat Ospreys at 6/4; 2 points on Toulouse to beat Bath at 11/10.

Leinster have been shifted out from 6/1 to 9/1 since defeat to Castres and in one sense, it’s not such a bad price anymore.

Despite that loss, Leinster are 9/1 basically because they are still that bit further down the track than some other teams. A win over Wasps this weekend will likely yield a home quarter final, and they also have the back-up parachute of knowing that even a bonus point defeat to Wasps could prove good enough to give them a chance of getting through (if they can beat Edinburgh at home with a BP).

That said, the issues with the back play persist, with Isa Nacewa at 10, Felipe Contepomi at 12 and Brian O’Driscoll at 13 all looking to play relatively similar games. None of the trio is naturally suited to being a direct target setter in midfield – though to be fair to him, O’Driscoll has tried to fill the charging role in the interests of the team. But Nacewa and Contepomi in particular both want to make deceptive plays virtually every time they get the ball, and it’s being read. There is a lack of variety to the threat.

I described 6/1 as a crazy price a few weeks ago, and though the 9s are slightly more realistic, I still wouldn’t be taking on a Leinster liability at this point. They just don’t look a side you want to go to war with.

The 4/1 about Munster also looks a little less appetising although the win over the Ospreys at the weekend showed that the return of the big names has at least resulted in a boost to the traditional virtues.

Sale are in the long grass though, and can justifiably feel that the defeat at Edgely Park earlier in the season was a bit of a mugging rather than a result that really revealed the virtues of both sides. It’s a small pitch there, and Munster managed it much better on the day. On the other hand, they didn’t exactly tear Sale apart. Sale are, remember, the side that beat Clermont away. Thomond Park should have more of a Test match vibe to it, which could well help the English side. You would never write off Munster though.

Looking elsewhere, the only side that look anything like being value at this point are Leicester.

They face Italian opposition at home this weekend and will almost certainly go to 20 points – ruling the still quoted but near dead in the water Perpignan (80/1) out of contention into the bargain.

Leicester’s main pool rivals, the Ospreys, play Perpignan away and even though Dan Carter is injured for the French club the Welshmen will find it very tough to get anything from the game at one of Europe’s toughest strongholds. Looking a week further ahead, with their pedigree and ability to improve under the gun, you could then easily see Leicester going to Wales and taking a winner takes all clash against the Ospreys - getting to 24 points and securing a home quarter into the bargain. If they do get to 24, they could even bump Leinster down into fifth place in the final standings – and set up a clash with Munster at home. On the other hand, just getting to 23 would give them a better chance of meeting Leinster….Maybe that BP win against Treviso isn’t as nailed on as it looks? Defeat to the Ospreys would also not necessarily mean the end of the road.

So, at 11/1 but with pedigree and multiple ‘outs’, Leicester are the closest thing to value this betting list has to offer and a small investment could end up looking quite tasty come knock out time.

RECOMMENDED: 1 point – Leicester to win the Heineken Cup at 11/1 (already advised – 1 point Stade Francais to win the Heineken Cup at 10/1).

Apologies this is a little later than advertised – couldn’t see a market yesterday, and couldn’t get on the web today until now.

Anyway – Leinster v Cardiff.

It’s a great looking Leinster team, but the caveat would be that though it’s a fine evening for rugby, there is a bit of a wind up that will make passing, let alone kicking, trickier than usual.

Even so, I strongly fancy Leinster to beat the handicap (seven points).

Till next week.

RECOMMENDED: Leinster to beat the handicap against Cardiff (seven points) at 10/11.

The rugby blog is back from its….traditional winter hiatus, and all told rather glad it missed what would most likely have been the carnage of shock results all over the Irish rugby-sphere.

Who saw Connacht running Leinster close? Or Munster losing to Ulster in Thomond Park?

In hindsight, there were reasons enough for both results but nobody bar nobody can claim to have seen them coming.

With things yet to settle down, this week’s set of fixtures are to be approached with a certain amount of caution.

Ulster will be well worth keeping an eye on in Belfast and down the line, could yet prove a stiffer test for Harlequins in the Heineken Cup than looked like being the case at one point. A bet one way or another on the spread may yet prove enticing in that one.

But their form is fragile and Edinburgh are also an in and out side. This weekend, it’s one to watch rather than get involved with.

Leinster play Cardiff and in a way, the Welsh side has the look of being a perfect opposition for ‘les Bleus’ – a big enough of a challenge to count as a notch on the bedpost but probably not so big that they’ll actually put it up to Leinster too much. Martyn Williams doesn’t travel, which must be a bonus.

You could see them knocking in scores as the game goes into the final 20.

A backlash from the shocker against Connacht is to be expected and there are interesting developments in the back row, with Shane Jennings ruled out for foolishly getting involved in the daft incident involving the fight at the collapsed scrum last weekend. That means Seán O’Brien will likely get the run in the team some – myself included – have been calling for. That alone won’t bring the kind of improvement Leinster need, but it’s a step in the right direction.

If he does get the chance, O’Brien needs a big day out here to ensure he will line up alongside Jamie Heaslip and Rocky Elsom in the big Heino fixtures.

For Munster, who play the Ospreys, the return of Paul O’Connell, Denis Leamy and Tomas O’Leary must be taken into account. Ronan O’Gara is out but if the Munster pack can establish themselves, Paul Warwick can do very well in a protected out-half role and though the backline is generally a little thin on quality, Quinlan/Wallace/Leamy is a classic Munster backrow and O’Connell’s return should else help stoke up the engine room.

Shane Williams is back for the Ospreys, which is a plus for them, but even so Munster look the team for backing. The book has the men in red at a very tempting 6/4, which is arguably a shade generous.

From the rest of this weekend’s matches, Leinster look the side most likely to do something a little unexpected against a side they’ve played well against before.

The book will open tomorrow, and I’ll be making a recommendation on at that stage…..so check back.

RECOMMENDED: 1 Point, Munster to beat the Ospreys at 6/4

Another week, another new sheet of Heineken Cup odds…..

Unfortunately, Stade didn’t quite come manage the result they needed at Harlequins to get back to the head of the market and are now three times the 10/1 they were before the match. By my calculations Stade could very well qualify in eighth place by getting BP wins over Ulster and Llanelli – both of whom are vulnerable to being totally outclassed.

That could mean an away clash with Toulouse, although Bath ran them close away and must fancy their chances at The Rec, which would change things around at the top. In fact, it might possibly mean Stade will end up with a re-match against Quins – with spring/summer conditions a real possibility – in the quarters.

That would right the ship nicely, though it is, admittedly, a longshot.

Possibly of greater interest now are Munster, who despite beating what is arguably the best rugby side in the competition in Clermont, went out half a point from 7/2 to 4/1 even though they are clearly now a better proposition now then they were before that game.

Yes, it exposed their flaws quite cruelly at times but they got through it and things are shaping up nicely elsewhere with the middling to big French sides that are probably the worst draw for Munster falling away a bit; Stade wobbled and Perpignan and Clermont are all but gone.

That means there will likely be only one more big French team – Toulouse, whose form is scrappy enough in this competition - to face once the tournament opens out.

Rua Tipoki’s return to the side should help correct some of the problems and Toulouse are a side Munster know they can beat. In fact, Munster are basically being asked to do a similar job this year to what they already did last year.

Leinster, meanwhile, have only been pushed out to 8/1 (from 6s) despite a dire showing away at Castres and despite the fact that the prediction that they will emerge from the pool is very much rooted in a ‘Leinster are bad, but Wasps are worse’ framework. That is never a good betting proposition and is particularly uninviting here. There’s no telling what shape January’s clash will take, and a lot depends on how Leinster manage their resources in the interim. 

But even if they win that match and get a home quarter, there are bogey draws all over the place for them. That said, they definitely have one big win in them and might well pull it off in a home quarter. But if they reach the rarified atmosphere of semis and finals, there is no guarantee whatsoever that they’ll hold up.

Even at 12s or 16s you would be a little reluctant to back at this point, so 8s make no sense at all.

More broadly, there is no real outstanding price to be had though Munster, Quins and Leicester have at least got significant achievements to back their lofty prices and look like teams that are going places. Munster in particular are in a very solid position.

Of the others high up in the betting, Leinster, Cardiff, Bath , Ospreys and even Toulouse are that much harder to fancy.

Welcome to the rugby betting blog……

We’ll get straight down to business and take a look at the current Heineken Cup odds. It’s a fascinating market at this stage, and with prices bound to change quickly after next week’s round of matches there is possibly a chance to make a quick ante-post killing based on a single match result.

At the top, few would argue that Toulouse and Munster are deserving of favouritism based on their achievements to date.
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