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Are England really that bad?

For me, with France v Scotland and Italy v Ireland priced up pretty well, that’s the crucial question heading in to this weekend.

Ireland will are a near certainty but are priced accordingly and the 12 point handicap is just about on the money. I would have a slight fancy for Ireland to beat it but not enough to bet it. France v Scotland is even harder to read. A 17 point handicap is maybe a touch generous to the French as Scotland should improve somewhat and have a few decent backs. Again, it’s priced up pretty well and there are big results at either end – a Scottish shock win or a classic thumping – that also put me off.

But what about Wales v England?

Well, England are a big price and drifting having opened at 3/1 and gone out to 10/3. Basically, they are about as unfashionable as bankers’ bonuses.

Looking at the vibe, there’s no Danny Cipriani to latch on to and even the likes of Ben Foden and Shane Geraghty have been dropped from the squad: an old warhorse vibe which should mean that the hype should be relatively low key – in terms of the price, that’s all good. There is not going be much ‘patriotic pound’ following them across the Severn.

But I also reckon that the fundamentals are there for England. In terms of physique and individual mental toughness I don’t see them being out-muscled or bullied in the way the Scots allowed themselves to be for long periods last week.

The lack of intensity against Italy is a worry but at the risk of repeating myself, I reckon the first side to find it in themselves to knock Wales around a bit in the tackle and ruck could find themselves with a surprisingly easy task in front of them. Last week ended up being a bit of a Mickey Mouse game for England: this is definitely not. I also reckon England are at or near rock-bottom and that this will help them perform.  Playing a fancied Wales side that you are playing as underdogs looks an ideal task for an English side that still has a natural arrogance about it.

Also, Wales are under pressure to win. England are under pressure to show some passion. That’s a slight but important difference and may play a role in deciding how this pans out.

Of course it’s always difficult to time the bet properly even when you figure that the hotpot (Wales in this case) is a potential bust and this is undeniably a little speculative. Even so, I’m going to say that on this occasion I think England – possibly even more than France in Week Three – may have what it takes.

(I have already recommended backing Wales at 5/1 for the Grand Slam but have gone off them a little since seeing the Scotland game and happy to lay off that bet to a degree. Basically, there’s a little extra scope there – though I still think a small investment on England this weekend is a sound bet in its own right).

RECOMMENDED: 1 point on England to beat Wales at 10/3.

The temptation is to focus on Ireland and this is in theory one of ‘their’ years. Ireland have France and England at home and a new coach that is making the right sort of noises. Add to that the fact that both France and England are possibly not being optimised by their coaches and Ireland’s chances start to look even better.

However, Ireland aren’t the only team favoured by the odd numbered years – they can in the right circumstances be ‘Welsh’ years too.

Obviously, there are two examples that count against that; 2003, when they got the wooden spoon, and 2007, when they finished fifth. However, the 2005 team was not as good as this year’s outfit but ended up with a Grand Slam thanks to a little bit of attitude (and luck). They also had a decent coach in Mike Ruddock.

So, 2003 and 2007 can both be put down to mismanagement but 2005 just might shows what’s possible and under Warren Gatland, that is the type of Wales I expect to see.

The pivotal match for Wales is France away in week three but with Marc Lievremont in charge, there is simply not the same aura to them. Selection is poor and the vibe is off. England are slightly better looked after but have form issues with key players and but still don’t inspire confidence.

France may look a different proposition after the Ireland match but for now, they look a team to take on.

That leaves Wales and Ireland.

A crucial factor between those two is that Wales will have home advantage when the sides meet in the final week. Add in that Warren Gatland has had substantially longer with his team than Declan Kidney and Wales have to be favourites in that game.

I expect Ireland to achieve big things under Kidney, but they may have to cope with a disappointment or two first.

Obviously, there are pitfalls to predicting and backing the same result as last year in a ‘Wales are Champions therefore they will be again’ but the fact remains that Wales are a better side now then they were last year and have a slightly easier task.

So, for me, the outstanding bet of this Six Nations outrights set is Wales to win the Grand Slam at 5/1.

Recommendation: 2 points on Wales to win a Grand Slam at 5/1.