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The price of this one hinges on the unknown Jonny Sexton factor.

Will the new 10 improve Ireland or will he – at 24 years of age and with one cap under his belt – flounder under the pressure of lining out against the World Champions?

All the indications – for anyone who has been watching a reasonable amount of Irish provincial rugby of late at least – are that Sexton will more than adequately fill in for O’Gara.

Add in the rumoured loss of Bakkies Botha from the Boks starting line-up and the even money or better available about Ireland looks even tastier.

The breakdown battle and the SA scrum – albeit possibly weakened by Botha’s absence – are the sole caveats for Ireland but the men in green still look to have the weapons to score good tries and restrict South Africa to penalties and possibly an opportunistic five pointer.

It’s tight, but Ireland have several key edges – not least the pace and passing of their back division - and can be backed with confidence.

Almost as fascinating is the clash of France and New Zealand later on Saturday evening.

France won a belting game against South Africa a couple of weeks ago, but just how sound is that form? Not very, in my view, as the Boks folded relatively tamely up front in the end and lacked the weapons to probe the French weak areas. The loss of Imanol Harinorduquy also damages the French outlook.

It is unlikely Les Bleus’ pack will steamroller the All Blacks and out-half Francois Trinh-Duc does not look up to steering his men to an attritional win either.

New Zealand are value at anywhere from 8/11 or better.

Recommended: 3 points Ireland to beat South Africa (11/10); 2 points New Zealand to beat France (8/11)

As everyone knows, the fixture list – specifically the home and away arrangements but also the order in which game are due to be played – is critical to every Six Nations.

The temptation is to focus on Ireland and this is in theory one of ‘their’ years. Ireland have France and England at home and a new coach that is making the right sort of noises. Add to that the fact that both France and England are possibly not being optimised by their coaches and Ireland’s chances start to look even better.

However, Ireland aren’t the only team favoured by the odd numbered years – they can in the right circumstances be ‘Welsh’ years too.

Obviously, there are two examples that count against that; 2003, when they got the wooden spoon, and 2007, when they finished fifth. However, the 2005 team was not as good as this year’s outfit but ended up with a Grand Slam thanks to a little bit of attitude (and luck). They also had a decent coach in Mike Ruddock.

So, 2003 and 2007 can both be put down to mismanagement but 2005 just might shows what’s possible and under Warren Gatland, that is the type of Wales I expect to see.

The pivotal match for Wales is France away in week three but with Marc Lievremont in charge, there is simply not the same aura to them. Selection is poor and the vibe is off. England are slightly better looked after but have form issues with key players and but still don’t inspire confidence.

France may look a different proposition after the Ireland match but for now, they look a team to take on.

That leaves Wales and Ireland.

A crucial factor between those two is that Wales will have home advantage when the sides meet in the final week. Add in that Warren Gatland has had substantially longer with his team than Declan Kidney and Wales have to be favourites in that game.

I expect Ireland to achieve big things under Kidney, but they may have to cope with a disappointment or two first.

Obviously, there are pitfalls to predicting and backing the same result as last year in a ‘Wales are Champions therefore they will be again’ but the fact remains that Wales are a better side now then they were last year and have a slightly easier task.

So, for me, the outstanding bet of this Six Nations outrights set is Wales to win the Grand Slam at 5/1.

Recommendation: 2 points on Wales to win a Grand Slam at 5/1.