As everyone knows, the fixture list – specifically the home and away arrangements but also the order in which game are due to be played – is critical to every Six Nations.

The temptation is to focus on Ireland and this is in theory one of ‘their’ years. Ireland have France and England at home and a new coach that is making the right sort of noises. Add to that the fact that both France and England are possibly not being optimised by their coaches and Ireland’s chances start to look even better.

However, Ireland aren’t the only team favoured by the odd numbered years – they can in the right circumstances be ‘Welsh’ years too.

Obviously, there are two examples that count against that; 2003, when they got the wooden spoon, and 2007, when they finished fifth. However, the 2005 team was not as good as this year’s outfit but ended up with a Grand Slam thanks to a little bit of attitude (and luck). They also had a decent coach in Mike Ruddock.

So, 2003 and 2007 can both be put down to mismanagement but 2005 just might shows what’s possible and under Warren Gatland, that is the type of Wales I expect to see.

The pivotal match for Wales is France away in week three but with Marc Lievremont in charge, there is simply not the same aura to them. Selection is poor and the vibe is off. England are slightly better looked after but have form issues with key players and but still don’t inspire confidence.

France may look a different proposition after the Ireland match but for now, they look a team to take on.

That leaves Wales and Ireland.

A crucial factor between those two is that Wales will have home advantage when the sides meet in the final week. Add in that Warren Gatland has had substantially longer with his team than Declan Kidney and Wales have to be favourites in that game.

I expect Ireland to achieve big things under Kidney, but they may have to cope with a disappointment or two first.

Obviously, there are pitfalls to predicting and backing the same result as last year in a ‘Wales are Champions therefore they will be again’ but the fact remains that Wales are a better side now then they were last year and have a slightly easier task.

So, for me, the outstanding bet of this Six Nations outrights set is Wales to win the Grand Slam at 5/1.

Recommendation: 2 points on Wales to win a Grand Slam at 5/1.